Has the core theory of innovation changed?
(or do we just have “old wine in new bottles”?)
I’ve been re-reading an innovation classic - Everett M. Rogers book, The Diffusion of Innovations. Originally published in 1962, this proved a seminal book on the theory of how ideas and technologies spread - to whit: Rogers’ was the creator of the “early adopters” concept, which appears in the book. While forty-one (41!) years has passed between the first and fifth editions, many of the core insights still apply.
His work and theories, grounded in rigorous research, show how innovative products andor concepts spread, and are taken up (or not). They remain relevant today, and can be applied to understanding new trends & developments, including the metaverse and embedded finance, among many others.
The work is rooted in social science theory, and grows into a structured analysis detailing the “hero’s journey” of an idea or technology working it’s through a labyrinth of obstacles to eventual widespread adoption. Rogers’ research identified various factors that determine whether an innovation succeeds or fails in the market. This fits with my personal favorite definition of innovation, which is “bringing an idea to the discipline of the market.”
Everett defined five (5) main attributes that contribute to the rate of uptake of any innovation:
Relative Advantage: Is this idea or technology superior to the one it is replacing?
Compatibility: Is the idea or technology in harmony with the prevailing norms, values and beliefs of the affected population?
Complexity: Is it perceived as easy or hard to understand - and use?
Trialability: Can it be easily tested/tried out by users with a low risk of loss?
Observability: Can the user or others easily see or experience positive results?
It speaks volumes about the robustness of these attributes that some terms can be interchanged with other modern SaaS concepts, e.g.: Trialability with “Freemium” or Observability with “Social Proof”. Even the concept of low Complexity can be seen in holy grail of online and mobile tools - “frictionless customer experience
While this makes the case for an enduring theory with almost unlimited variations, there is no theory of everything (just yet). Rogers’ acknowledges criticisms and limitations in later editions, covering partialities like the pro-innovation or individual-blame bias. He also explores how equality, or lack thereof, could affect the diffusion of an idea or technology throughouts a population.
Nevertheless, imperfect or not, Everett Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations can (and I believe should) be used as a model for the adoption of many emerging technologies, from blockchain to quantum computing.
This is certainly a set of concepts and tools, grounded in deep research and understanding of how both people and organizations respond to innovation, that I and the team at Ulysses Partners will explore further & use with clients.